The firestorm vs bushfire metaphor stuck with me. It realy does shift the framing when you realize China's domestic market is absorbing more output than exports are growing. I hadnt thought about how the tariff leverage might be overestimated by policymakers still thinking of the early 2000s export-led model. Do you think this domestic absorpion trend will continue or could external shocks reverse it?
The key point this ignores is the price deflation occurring within China. The type of price deflation China is experiencing indicates that goods AREN'T being sold in China, hence why prices are being cut. And if prices are being cut and profits are declining (which is what the fight against involution is about) then China has some serious problems.
Interesting. I presume a lot of Chinese exports are nowadays effected through third-party countries, like Vietnam. To what extend would it lead to an amendment of the conclusion ?
Export production is very important, even crucial for every economy, especially China's now, and not only China's, that's clear. But the conditions, circumstances for it are also crucial, first of all, crucial, e.g. politics and not only politics, simply Circumstances, Conditions..
The firestorm vs bushfire metaphor stuck with me. It realy does shift the framing when you realize China's domestic market is absorbing more output than exports are growing. I hadnt thought about how the tariff leverage might be overestimated by policymakers still thinking of the early 2000s export-led model. Do you think this domestic absorpion trend will continue or could external shocks reverse it?
The key point this ignores is the price deflation occurring within China. The type of price deflation China is experiencing indicates that goods AREN'T being sold in China, hence why prices are being cut. And if prices are being cut and profits are declining (which is what the fight against involution is about) then China has some serious problems.
Interesting. I presume a lot of Chinese exports are nowadays effected through third-party countries, like Vietnam. To what extend would it lead to an amendment of the conclusion ?
They still count as Chinese exports, do they not?
Export production is very important, even crucial for every economy, especially China's now, and not only China's, that's clear. But the conditions, circumstances for it are also crucial, first of all, crucial, e.g. politics and not only politics, simply Circumstances, Conditions..